This
week in brief
This
week, the market held steady. Basic materials, technology, and
consumer services were the outperformers, rising 1%, while
industrials and financials did the most to keep the market from
advancing. Coupled with the extremely positive sentiment on Wall
Street, some people say that the elections finally bringing an end
of one party rule within our grasp will bring us a rough week next
week. I do not plan on buying any more stocks before year end and
will probably sell some before I buy any more. I recommend the
same for you. Sit on what you have for now and start thinking
about selling your winners.
Of
the four times since January 2007 the Contrarian Index was below
-100, the market was down an average of 2% and 4% over the next
one and two months. The individual numbers (most recent first)
are +3% and -6%; -7 and +0%; -6% and -6%; and +2% and +1%),
compared to an average 0.2% monthly decline over the period. At
least since 2005, none of these bearish indicators coincided with
the beginning of the Santa Claus rally, so we will see if Santa
can overpower the bear.
Here
are some items for your reading list: First a
great article that reinforces my opinion that the next
stimulus package (dubbed QE2—quantitative easing 2) will be as
futile as the last one in stimulating the economy. Second, some
graphics on how people for the first time since 1967 are moving
out of unemployment into the ranks, not of those employed but of
those who have given up looking for a job. Thus, the slightly
improving unemployment numbers are not a good thing this time
around.
The
Longs, Shorts, and Mini-Skirts equity portfolio and our mutual
fund portfolio (now referred to as the "wardrobe") both
outpaced their benchmarks. Both the LSMS Portfolio and the
Wardrobe were up 2% for the week.
As
a replacement for the AWF bond fund, we will buy Alliance
Bernstein Income Fund (NYSE: ACG). It is selling at a 7% discount,
and yields 5.7%. It is a high quality bond fund, compared to PHK
which is a junk bond fund and rated with 4 stars by Morningstar.
Significant
news on our stocks
Acxiom
(rated "avoid") announced quarterly results. Revenue increased
8% and earnings per share rose 30%. Although these results are
very respectable, the stock is still way overvalued and revenue
growth is still not matching that of its competitors.
Constellation
Energy Partners ("hold") has scheduled its earnings call for
Friday at 9:30AM. Click
here to hear it.
Gulfmark
Offshore ("hold") has reported earnings. Revenues grew 4%
and earnings per share were up 10% before accounting for a sale of
some assets.
Humana
("hold") is holding its earnings call tomorrow at 9AM. Click
here to join.
Petrobrazileiro
("buy") announced that its Barra oil field holds more oil than
originally thought.
Masco
("short") announced in its quarterly results that it lost 2
cents per share. Revenues were down 6% due to the weak housing
market.
Constellation
Brands ("short") and its joint venture partner reached an
agreement over the latter's lawsuit of Constellation.
The
Wardrobe
Objective:
use closed ended mutual funds for 10% annual returns with lower
volatility than the stock market.
Year
to date return: +50%
Benchmark:
+9% (50% US stocks, 50% US bonds)
Longs
|
Shorts
|
Stock
Funds
|
DCA
Total Return Fund (NYSE: DCA)
|
Cornerstone
Strategic Value Fund (NYSE: CLM)
|
DCW
Total Return Fund (NYSE: DCW)
|
Cornerstone
Total Return Fund (NYSE: CRF)
|
Bond
Funds
|
Alliance
Bernstein Income Fund (NYSE: ACG)
|
PIMCO
High Income Fund (NYSE: PHK)
|
Pimco
Strategic Global Income (NYSE: RCS)
|
Templeton
Global Income Fund (NYSE: GIM)
|
|
|
Recommended
Longs, Shorts, and Mini-Skirts stock portfolio:
Click
here for the write-ups from past Longs, Shorts
and Mini-Skirts about the following stocks.
Longs:
US
airplane leasing company: Aircastle
(NYSE:
AYR) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
Sell
at $3.70: US
natural gas company: Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
Chinese
natural gas company: China
Natural Gas (NASDAQ:
CHNG) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats
,
More
US
natural gas service company: GulfMark Offshore (NYSE: GLF) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
US
financial company: Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
US
health care company: Humana (NYSE: HUM) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
Brazilian
petroleum company: PetroBrazileiro (NYSE: PBR)
Chinese
pharmaceutical company: Tianyin Pharmaceutical Co. Inc. (Amex:
TPI) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
Mutual
funds:
Market
Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX)
USAA
Precious Metals and Minerals Fund (USAGX Chart
,
Profile
,
More
)
Australian
Koalas
Shorts:
US
information management company: Acxiom
(NASDAQ:
ACXM) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
US
home improvement company: Masco
(NYSE: MAS) Chart
, Messages , Key
Stats , More
US
beverage company: Constellation
Brands (NYSE:
STZ) Chart
,
Messages
,
Key
Stats ,
More
Direxion
Daily Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (NYSE: BGZ)
Long-Short
pairs:
Long:
DCA
Total Return Fund (NYSE: DCA)
Short:
Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund (NYSE: CLM)
Short:
Cornerstone Total Return Fund (NYSE: CRF)
|